US August Non-Farm Payrolls Data Fell Significantly Short of Expectations, Tin Prices Expected to Hover at Highs [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, September 15, 2025

Last week, the domestic and overseas tin market generally fluctuated at highs. Macro perspective, US August non-farm payrolls data fell significantly short of expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, strengthening market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September. The weakening US dollar provided some support to commodity prices. However, Trump's announcement that he would "soon" impose tariffs on semiconductor imports sparked concerns about the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Supply and demand fundamentals, supply side, affected by Myanmar's rainy season and delayed production resumptions, domestic tin concentrates imports continued to contract. Smelters in Yunnan maintained low operating rates due to tight raw material inventory, and planned concentrated maintenance in September further suppressed supply release. Demand side, performance was weak due to the traditional off-season in the electronics industry and a decline in orders after the PV installation rush ended. Although demand in the semiconductor sector recovered slightly, downstream procurement remained primarily for rigid demand. Looking ahead, tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term. With the arrival of the traditional September-October peak season, NEV and PV installation demand entering the peak, tin consumption in Q4 is expected to grow MoM. Supported by low inventory and tight supply, the room for price corrections is limited, but high prices also suppress actual consumption. Investors need to closely monitor macro data guidance and capital flows. The most-traded contract is expected to move sideways in the range of 270,000-275,000 yuan/mt in the short term.